fall turkey

With the ongoing concerns about the observable decline of wild turkey populations in the great Empire State, it is a timely exercise to take a look at the estimated harvest numbers. We’ll look at this by the statewide macro, all the way back before the observable peaks and what is considered by many to be the heyday of turkeys in nearly every place you might look for them. As a geeky engineer personality, I follow such statistics concerning our favored nemesis, including measurable trophy records. I ask that you consider this carefully from the macro view, as estimations rely on statistical modeling that bears true overall from large volumes of data rather than looking at widely varying micro-ecosystems. Before I dive into this further there is a list of precepts, assumptions, and points to make to take notice of and pay heed to before coming to any conclusions. The current topic of population decline is an emotional and often heated discussion full of finger-pointing and rife with blame and quick fixes. The purpose of this is to show how severe the decline is estimated to be.

Source data used:
The data from 1999 thru 2021 is sourced from NYSDEC webpages https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html, https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30412.html Both pages are captured from previously published versions of the same links. Currently, active published links only go back to 2012.

NYSDEC data from 2006 thru 2021 is estimated harvest data.
https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html 2008 version published spring harvest data included both reported harvest and estimated harvest for 1999 thru 2005 no such comparison for the fall harvest is found in the search.

NYSDEC data from 1999 thru 2005 is estimated harvest data.
https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html 2008 version published spring harvest data included both reported harvest and estimated harvest for 1999 thru 2005 no such comparison for the fall harvest is found in the search.

The data from 1990 thru 1998 is sourced from NYSDEC webpages https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html, https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30412.html Both pages are captured from previously published versions of the same links.

Precepts:

1. All data used to create this is from NYSDEC published reports. All comments made here are not as a representative or authority of the NYSDEC or reviewed. Corrections, and or clarifications are sincerely welcomed to make this as accurate as feasibly possible.
2. Estimation factors applied to reported harvest numbers are targeted to realistically represent poaching estimates, harvest reporting participation, and other factors identified by the NYSDEC. I would invite them to comment on what is involved in reaching estimation factors applied to each county.
3. This is a macro statewide view. Anecdotally, each of us can cite absolute conclusions from our honey holes, the trash talk at the diners, conversations at the trail heads, etc. Managing the wildlife resource by region is the current method.
4. Very few of us hunt more than a few counties any given season and even less are afield throughout the entire year. The extenuating factors to list by county much less by individual parcels, tracts of land are too many, too varied to digest well enough to rationally get a handle of the widespread landscape of decline. Such studies on micro ecosystems would take decades to complete and reach any consensus or actionable conclusions.
5. The factors derived by the years 1999 through 2005 were averaged out by county and applied to estimate numbers for 1990 thru 1998. NYSDEC has not provided or published factors for these years. The peak factor numbers were not used in my calculations so as to not overstate the peak years. If such factoring data exists it would be much preferred

Observations:

1. As the peak years are based only on derived averaged factoring, (1999-2005 Spring Season) it is a conservative estimate that the population is now roughly 20-25% of the peak population year. Some individual counties at first glance appear to be further declined. It will require correlation with license sales in those counties to validate that. What is sustainable year to year is not submitted or asserted here. It is far more complex than the harvest data thus far can suggest.
2. The factoring spread among all NY counties (1999-2005 Spring Seasons) ranges from 2.65 to 7.40.
3. The average spread among all NY counties (1999-2005 Spring Seasons) ranges from 4.06 to 5.71.
4. The averaged factor among all NY counties = 4.57 (1999-2005 Spring Seasons)
5. Translation- for every harvest reported. 3.57 turkeys across the Empire State were not reported or taken illegally. It is unclear as to what percentages or other contributors.

Comments:

I invite the NYDEC to comment to participate in communicating to New York Sportsmen as to what goes into the statistical modeling and factoring of yearly game harvest number estimates. Poaching of course is already illegal, over-harvest, etc. One thing each of us can control and improve as a group is the harvest reporting participation. 90-100% is possible. I can recall from NYSDEC -NY NWTF meetings during the change over from raw harvest data reporting to estimated harvest reporting, how low the harvest reporting participation was thought to be. I am a big fan of removing as much guessing as possible to improve the statistical modeling. With the population severely declining, how well does it bode to turn a blind eye to those we know that pile up a half dozen gobblers season after season before filling the first tag? It is not the primary reason for the decline but a contributing factor and hinders the ability to accurately model population trends, or stability.

We can do better. If we are to get a handle on the low-hanging fruit of root causes causing the population to decline, we need to get past this, what we can directly, and immediately control. This is a friendly reminder that as sportsmen, we do not require a state agency to self-regulate our own actions. I won’t implore that any of you adopt my personal ethics, but I would ask each of you to give pause/reservation to squeezing the trigger at your favored stomping grounds where you now only see one or two birds whereas you use to see fifteen or twenty in the spring. In far too many locations across the state, we make that choice on what may be the last remaining turkeys, in the field, on the hill. It may be some time to see them rebound, and there are too many places on my list that I’ll check on, but I am no longer willing to fill a tag there. This includes my own property. It is a most disheartening thing.

I will conclude by asking each of you to view this as trending data, not absolute, and is in a broad view of the entire New York wild turkey population. Hopefully, the folks at the NYSDEC will provide much more clarity to this and further explain the modeling and factoring that makes this a monitoring tool for the wild turkey resource we are so passionate about.

-MJ

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Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media