NY Counties Est. Wild Turkey Harvest Reports

In further examination of NY State wide harvest reports, https://www.turkey-talk.com/tblog/?p=2368 we’ll look at this by the county-wide macro, all the way back before the observable peaks and what is considered by many to be the heyday of turkeys in nearly every place you might look for them. I ask that you consider this carefully from the larger view, rather than looking at widely varying micro-ecosystems. There is a list of precepts, assumptions, and points to make to take notice of and pay heed to before coming to any conclusions. In comparision to the state wide view, pay particular attention to the numbers as the lower estimated numbers appear to vary widely and can be attributed to many factors that tend to null each other out in a larger, macro scale.

Source data used:
The data from 1999 thru 2021 is sourced from NYSDEC webpages https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html, https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30412.html Both pages are captured from previously published versions of the same links. Currently, active published links only go back to 2012.

NYSDEC data from 2006 thru 2021 is estimated harvest data.
https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html 2008 version published spring harvest data included both reported harvest and estimated harvest for 1999 thru 2005 no such comparison for the fall harvest is found in the search.

NYSDEC data from 1999 thru 2005 is estimated harvest data.
https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html 2008 version published spring harvest data included both reported harvest and estimated harvest for 1999 thru 2005 no such comparison for the fall harvest is found in the search.

The data from 1990 thru 1998 is sourced from NYSDEC webpages https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html, https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30412.html Both pages are captured from previously published versions of the same links.

Precepts:

1. All data used to create this is from NYSDEC published reports. All comments made here are not as a representative or authority of the NYSDEC or reviewed. Corrections, and or clarifications are sincerely welcomed to make this as accurate as feasibly possible.
2. Estimation factors applied to reported harvest numbers are targeted to realistically represent poaching estimates, harvest reporting participation, and other factors identified by the NYSDEC.
3. This is a sub-macro county-wide view. Anecdotally, each of us can cite absolute conclusions from our honey holes, the trash talk at the diners, conversations at the trail heads, etc. Managing the wildlife resource by region is the current method.
4. Very few of us hunt more than a few counties any given season and even less are afield throughout the entire year. The extenuating factors to list by towns. public game lands, much less by individual parcels, tracts of land are too many, too varied to digest well enough to rationally get a handle of the widespread landscape of decline.
5. The factors derived by the years 1999 through 2005 were averaged out by county and applied to estimate numbers for 1990 thru 1998. NYSDEC has not provided or published factors for these years. The peak factor numbers were not used in my calculations so as to not overstate the peak years. If such factoring data exists it would be much preferred

Observations:

1. As the peak years are based only on derived averaged factoring, (1999-2005 Spring Season) it is a conservative estimate that the population is now roughly 20-25% of the peak population year. Some individual counties at first glance appear to be further declined. It will require correlation with license sales in those counties to validate that. What is sustainable year to year is not submitted or asserted here. It is far more complex than the harvest data thus far can suggest.
2. The factoring spread among all NY counties (1999-2005 Spring Seasons) ranges from 2.65 to 7.40.
3. The average spread among all NY counties (1999-2005 Spring Seasons) ranges from 4.06 to 5.71.
4. The averaged factor among all NY counties = 4.57 (1999-2005 Spring Seasons)
5. Translation- for every harvest reported. 3.57 turkeys across the Empire State were not reported or taken illegally. It is unclear as to what percentages or other contributors.

Comments:

I invite the NYDEC to comment to participate in communicating to New York Sportsmen as to what goes into the statistical modeling and factoring of yearly game harvest number estimates.

I will conclude by asking each of you to view this as trending data, not absolute. Hopefully, the folks at the NYSDEC will provide much more clarity to this and further explain the modeling and factoring that makes this a monitoring tool for the wild turkey resource we are so passionate about.

-MJ

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Mike Joyner- Joyner Outdoor Media